As the entertainment world continues to evolve post-pandemic, Ampere Analysis’ Guy Bisson offered a compelling look at the global film industry’s current state and its trajectory in 2025 during a presentation at the European Film Market.
With the global box office still recovering from the pandemic’s devastating impact and streaming taking an increasingly dominant role in how audiences consume content, Bisson offered a sharp insight into where the market is heading and what it means for film production, distribution and financing.
A Shifting Landscape
“The global market, valued at $800 billion, is essentially split in two,” Bisson explained. “Half of it is shrinking, and half of it is growing.” What this split reveals is a fundamental shift in the entertainment ecosystem. The legacy businesses — broadcast television, transactional video and theatrical releases — are all struggling, while the sectors that are on the rise include streaming and online video platforms like YouTube and TikTok.
While streaming continues to surge, the theatrical market is “flat” and has yet to return to pre-COVID levels. Asia, particularly China, stands as the only region where the box office is projected to exceed pre-pandemic levels. This trend is indicative of the slow recovery of the global box office and the lingering effects of COVID-19’s disruption. “If you note, Asia is the only region forecast to go above slightly where it was before COVID,” Bisson pointed out.
The Decline of Traditional Business Models
The most significant shift in the entertainment landscape, according to Bisson, is the move from legacy models based on geography to a more universal distribution model facilitated by streaming technology. This transformation has dismantled geographic restrictions that once defined content distribution. “All the players trying to reach that audience are following the same path, and so we’re getting more and more overlap between different windows as we used to think of them,” he explains.
As streaming emerges as the primary means of delivering entertainment, traditional windows for film distribution — like theatrical releases and TV — are increasingly consolidating. “Everything’s converged on streaming now, all those windows post-theatrical with different means of distribution in the past are all now in the same basket,” Bisson explained. This convergence creates a new challenge for filmmakers and distributors who must navigate an ever-more complex market where traditional categories of content are blending.
The Changing Role of Streaming and Movies
Despite streaming’s dominance, Bisson emphasizes that its role has evolved. Once viewed as the savior of the film industry during the pandemic, streaming is no longer the premier platform for film releases. “Streaming as a premiere platform is… considerably less important,” he states. This is partly due to the shift in focus from first-run films to TV renewals and more secure, established content.
“Increasingly, streaming platforms are prioritizing TV renewals — safe bets — over first-run films and movies,” Bisson noted. This change is largely driven by the rising importance of advertising and the need for repeat engagement from viewers. The focus has shifted toward retaining subscribers with proven, long-running TV series that keep audiences coming back for more.
Simultaneously, Bisson highlights the decline in movie production by major studios. Companies like Disney are reducing the number of films they produce, opting instead to focus on making fewer, higher-quality projects. “If you’re in a flat market, there’s been no increase in volumes, and majors are dropping,” he said. The result is a “pullback” in production budgets, with the major studios cutting spending by roughly 10%. These cutbacks are compounded by the struggles of streamers, who are also scaling back their film production budgets.
Independent Film and Financing
There was some potential good news for the independent producers, sales agents and distributors at this year’s EFM. While major studios and streaming giants pull back, the independent sector is on the rise. “The independent and smaller producer distributors are growing significantly,” Bisson pointed out. However, these smaller companies often face significant challenges in securing financing. “The backers and finance have shifted again,” he notes, with financing deals becoming more complex due to the need for more parties to get involved.
As traditional, one-stop-shop financing deals become harder to come by, the importance of producers and distributors in the financing process is growing. A key example of this trend is the recent 30-picture deal between Paramount Pictures and Domain Capital, which Bisson cites as an example of the kind of deal more likely to dominate the industry in the near future. “That’s the sort of deal we’d expect to see more and more of going forward,” he says.
A New Frontier in Asia
Asia, Bisson believes, will play an increasingly important role in the global film market. While traditional markets in North America and Europe face challenges, Asia remains a bright spot. “Asia is an increasingly interesting region to look at for striking those partnerships,” he says of future collaborations. The region is not only a crucial market for theatrical releases but also a significant player in first-run TV commissioning. Bisson suggests that the future of both TV and film production will increasingly be shaped by partnerships and financing deals in Asia.
Conclusion
Guy Bisson’s analysis paints a picture of a film industry adapting to a new normal. While streaming continues to grow and dominate the market, traditional models of film production and distribution are being redefined. Major studios are scaling back, focusing on higher-quality projects rather than sheer volume. The independent sector is rising, but financing remains a challenge. Meanwhile, Asia emerges as a critical region for the future of film and TV.
For filmmakers, producers, and distributors, the key takeaway from Bisson’s insights is clear: adapt to a world where streaming is king, traditional models are fading and global markets, especially in Asia, will drive the future of film production and distribution. In this new era, “less is more” is not just a trend—it’s the new reality of the entertainment industry.
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