Box Office Predictions 2025

The domestic box office is bound to do around $9 billion in 2025, roughly $300 million more than 2024’s estimated final figure of $8.7 billion. If so, it will be the second time that U.S.-Canada ticket sales hit that threshold post-Covid after 2023’s domestic tally of $9 billion.

ComScore reports that 110 movies in 2025 will open in more than 2,000 theaters apiece, which is 15 more than 2024 and the most ever post-pandemic. The New Year will even end with a big event movie to carry us over into 2026: 20th Century Studios’ Avatar: Fire and Ash. The previous James Cameron-directed sequel, Avatar: The Way of Water, was released December 2022 and overall grossed $684M domestic, with $283M of that total coming in 2023.

Exhibitors and studio execs declare with glee that 2025 will be “a normal year,” untainted by strike disruptions and (knock on wood) a pandemic. The anticipated merger of Paramount and Skydance is being declared a great sign not just because incoming boss David Ellison is a champion of the big screen, but also because two major studios aren’t collapsing into each other, which would deplete the supply of movies.

Why is it so hard to get happy about this?

Even though the motion picture industry can wipe its brow over another year of recovery, we can’t ignore the fact that some $2 billion-$3 billion remains missing at the domestic box office. The number of frequent moviegoers we’ve seen before Covid has dropped, and the question remains as to when we’ll ever see them again.

The year 2025 will mark six years since we passed a double-digit-billion mark at the North American box office, the last being 2019 with $11 billion. For 10 years between 2009-2019, the annual domestic box office surpassed the double-digit-billions mark annually. In 2018, when the box office hit a record $11.9 billion, there were 45 movies that each opened north of $20M-plus at the box office, and 35 titles that grossed well north of $100M. In 2024, there were 34 movies that opened north of $20M and 22 crossed $100M.

One studio boss cried that “if theatrical becomes just an advertisement for streaming or PVOD, the audience is going to begin to understand that,” they said. “It removes the programmatic reason to go to theater.”

Sorry to tell ya, but that apocalypse is already here.

Yes, point fingers at the abundance of streaming content available, but also blame the dark reality that Covid has changed onetime moviegoers’ attitudes to simply stay at home.

Just ask Robert Thies of Brattleboro, VT, a former frequent moviegoer (defined by tracking services such as Quorum as a person who sees a movie once a month) and single father of four, all under the age of 18. For him to fork over $12.52-$16.82 per ticket (the annual EntTelligence average price range in 2024 for standard to premium tickets), there has to be a compelling reason, and the movie better be good, especially since time is precious. If Thies wants to have an Alamo Drafthouse experience with recliner seats and a highbrow menu, he has to travel two hours to Boston, and the closest Imax screen is 100 miles away in Somerville, MA.

The last movie he saw with the family was Beetlejuice Beetlejuice in September. He opted to watch the second biggest movie of 2024, Deadpool & Wolverine (domestic gross: $636.7M), on Disney+.

Or ask Frank Macaluso, 70, of Yorktown Heights, NY, who used to catch all the awards-contender movies in the theater. Post-Covid, it’s a more comfortable experience to start and stop movies at home, not to mention step away for that quick bathroom break. Furthermore, he says, “Ever since that silent film won Best Picture at the Oscars [The Artist in 2012], I don’t know how the people in Hollywood determine what’s good nowadays.” Macaluso watched this season’s awards contender Anora on PVOD over the holidays, and he’s glad he did from the comfort of his couch.

Post-Covid, there hasn’t been a major increase in the number of people who prefer to watch movies in a theater. According to Quorum, that share moved slightly, from 45.9% in 2022 to 46.2% in 2024. If behaviors were changing in regard to more people attending cinemas, we’d expect those figures to rise. Instead, they are holding steady.

Here’s the irony. When it comes to tentpole movies with 30-to-46 day theatrical windows until PVOD, there’s plenty of evidence that shows there’s no cannibalization of a movie’s ticket sales thereafter. Before Universal implemented their 18-day window for Focus Features titles and 30-to 46-day window for movies opening north of $50M, they conducted an immense amount of financial research, particularly how each window cascades from theatrical, into PVOD, then streaming windows on Amazon Prime or Netflix (depending on the film brand) before arriving on streaming service Peacock. The theory is that marketing and P&A cost efficiencies are achieved in overlapping the theatrical window with that of PVOD. Essentially, a movie is at its greatest level of consumer awareness during its first two weeks of theatrical release, hence the reason why the PVOD frame is dated so close. Universal’s DreamWorks Animation title The Wild Robot went on PVOD after an 18-day window and made an additional $55.4M at the box office, ultimately finaling at $143.1M; it also benefited in a fall marketplace in which it was one of the only family films. Universal also took Twisters, which overperformed for a $81.2M three-day opening, into homes on PVOD after 25 days in cinemas. It made almost $44M in box office after that point and ended its domestic run at $267.7M.

Both titles’ subsequent weekends at the box office following their simultaneous PVOD release saw mere dips, at around 30%. The theory is that PVOD consumers who pay $20-$30 a title aren’t frequent moviegoers to begin with. Despite such glowing stats about box office vs. PVOD above, there are those studio executives in the industry who believe that the financial situation of such movies will only worsen in time if the current state of windowing remains.

Currently, there’s a quid pro quo when it comes to windows between studios and exhibitors. Those studios who have longer theatrical windows on their movies have the potential to hold more PLF screens on a title. At the same time, those studios with shorter windows on a movie, typically hand out better rental terms to a top three theater chain during a title’s PVOD weeks. This past year, Disney had the longest theatrical windows among all studios, many of its titles with 60-day-plus exclusive theatrical frames.

Lest we forget the current motion picture business philosophy that theatrical creates a better patina and stronger downstream window.

Alas, the length of a theatrical window and its subsequent PVOD one is only as good as the film’s box office opening. There’s no bad business in big box office openings. There’s also no financial sense in letting a bomb wither in a dark window before it arrives on PVOD. Best to capture dollars ASAP. A recent example: One of the year’s shortest theatrical windows for a major studio is Warner Bros/New Line’s animated Lord of the Rings: The War of Rohirrim, which landed in homes on PVOD after 14 days in cinemas following the $30M production’s paltry opening of $4.5M.

Again, the industry’s problem in the new year and beyond is restoring faith and excitement in moviegoing to the lost audience. This coming year’s supply of 110 wide releases isn’t enough if only 20% of them are expected to open north of $20M.

If there’s a threat to moviegoing, it’s in the major studios’ failure to support more movies on the big screen. In an effort to turn a quick profit, some studios will underspend in a film’s campaign, or flat out fail in reaching an audience, thus sending a film into homes at a rapid rate. While such results are great for the studio, it takes a toll on a leading star’s commercial reputation. Moviegoing begets moviegoing, and if there’s a slew of titles opening to single digits, or even low double digits, how do we begin to spread more word of mouth? F. Scott Fitzgerald said it best in The Last Tycoon: “Not half a dozen men have ever been able to keep the whole equation of pictures in their heads.” 

“The studios and exhibition have to find a way to partner and create a version of a ‘Got Milk’ campaign,” is one motion picture marketing executive’s suggestion for how to resuscitate moviegoing.

Premium screens are clearly a driver in getting audiences out of the home and represent anywhere from 35%-50% of a tentpole’s opening weekend. NATO and ComScore boast that there are 950 PLF screens, a 37% boost from five years ago. Given the annual fight for them among studios, we can’t deny the fact we need more of them. Imax plans to sign 120 new theaters around the world in the next two years. Four movies were shot for Imax screens in 2024, and 2025 will see 12 new releases shot in the format.

When it comes to the build-out and expense of PLF screens, should exhibition get help from the big studios like they did with 3D 15 years ago? It’s a solution worth considering if we want to keep moviegoing alive.

The unexpected success of Longlegs with frosh leading lady Maika Monroe and hidden star Nicolas Cage (opening $22.4M) and the feature adaptation of Coleen Hoover’s It Ends With Us ($50M) remain takeaways of 2024 heading into 2025. Both titles are examples of how clever marketing led to event-sized grosses. Neon’s sell on Longlegs and Sony’s on It Ends With Us were laser-focused in digital campaigns toward their respective demos of young males and young women. Neon’s spend on Oz Perkins’ horror film being was under $10M.

What’s becoming clearer to movie marketing executives, particularly with the buckling of linear TV, is that a movie opening can’t be entirely bought anymore. Success needs to be earned with a blend of paid and earned media. If the last presidential election taught anyone anything, it is that people are consuming media differently. Psychographics need to be carved out from varying points of view, building toward the gravitational pull of a movie’s opening weekend. It’s how Sony zeroed in on women ages 17-34 to go to It Ends With Us, and it’s why buys during NFL games remain vital when it comes to attracting young males under 35. The media landscape is fractured, and part of the box office rebound lies in Hollywood getting their arms around that.

Despite the industry losing audiences, some portions of terra firma remain at the domestic box office, and for the better. According to EntTelligence, more than 680M tickets were sold in 2024, surpassing the total U.S.-Canada attendance of 2022. Unlike 2024, which began the year with six weekends without wide releases (that ultimately was whittled to one), 2025 kicks off with only three weekends sans wide entries: January 3, October 31 and December 12. Surely the latter two slots won’t go empty.

Stars continue to work at the box office, whether it’s in original IP or even building upon established IP, evident this past year in Jenna Ortega (Beetlejuice Beetlejuice), Ryan Reynolds (IF, Deadpool & Wolverine) and Timothée Chalamet (Dune: Part Two and A Complete Unknown). Even Dwayne Johnson can get a non-dazzling entity like Red One to a minimum start of $32.6M.

There are 38 summer wide releases in 2025 including James Gunn’s Superman, Tom Cruise’s Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, two Marvel movies in Thunderbolts* and The Fantastic Four: First Steps, and Universal’s Jurassic World Rebirth. IP is clearly a driver as it was back in the heyday of 2018.

Some say streaming movies are on par with the direct-to-video titles of the early ’90s. But the whole Sisyphus task for the industry lies in convincing the current home-based audience that the best content isn’t in their living rooms or on their phones. How do you pull that off when there are movies like Emilia Pérez and Knives Out: Wake Up Dead Man on Netflix?

In an industry that’s more art than science, it’s best for the motion picture studios to heed the prescient advice of the late Loews Incorporated president and CEO Nicholas M. Schenck when trying to fix the embattled theatrical marketplace:

“There’s nothing wrong with this business that good pictures can’t cure.”