For a generation of movie lovers, Siskel & Ebert’s annual special “If We Picked the Winners” was a major event. It wasn’t just predictions of who would win the Oscars that year, but critical analysis of who should win and even who should have been nominated. In their best formal wear, Roger and Gene would give viewers a full picture of the awards season in one episode of television. To honor that event, we asked the editors of RogerEbert.com to pick their choices for who will win, who should win, and who should have been nominated for one of the most unpredictable Academy Awards in a very long time. The participants include Matt Zoller Seitz (MZS), Robert Daniels (RD), Nell Minow (NM), Clint Worthington (CW), and yours truly (BT). Let us know your picks in the comments! See the results below:
BEST PICTURE
WHO WILL WIN:
“Anora” (NM, RD, CW)
“The Brutalist” (BT)
“Conclave” (MZS)
WHO SHOULD WIN:
“Nickel Boys” (RD, CW)
“Anora” (BT)
“The Brutalist” (NM)
“Conclave” (MZS)
WHO SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED:
“Sing Sing” (RD, MZS)
“Better Man” (CW)
“Ghostlight” (NM)
“I Saw the TV Glow” (BT)
The most wide-open Best Picture race in years results in little consensus in these categories although it does seem like someone will be happy with the big winner given all three films in our prediction of what will win are also represented in what should win. Robert truly hopes for a “Nickel Boys” upset, a film he believes “we’re going to be talking about for decades to come. It totally shifts both what makes a Black film and what is possible in cinema.”
Clint holds the same hope for a historic upset but also wishes for the alternate timeline in which the Robbie Williams monkey movie got the attention it deserved. “Apes together strong!” I’m going with an upset and a shocking win for my #2 film of the year, but will be happy if my #1 film of the year takes the prize most are now predicting it will. In my decades of movie-watching, I’m pretty sure the Best Picture race has never come down to my two favorite films of the previous year, which either says something about the Academy’s changing tastes or mine.
BEST DIRECTOR
WHO WILL WIN:
Sean Baker, “Anora” (NM, RD, CW, MZS)
Brady Corbet, “The Brutalist” (BT)
WHO SHOULD WIN:
Brady Corbet, “The Brutalist” (BT, NM, RD, CW)
James Mangold, “A Complete Unknown” (MZS)
WHO SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED:
RaMell Ross, “Nickel Boys” (BT, RD, CW)
Jon M. Chu, “Wicked” (NM)
Ken Loach, “The Old Oak” (MZS)
Let’s allow Robert to lay this down: “Only six Black directors have ever been nominated for Best Director: John Singleton (“Boyz N the Hood”), Lee Daniels (“Precious”), Steve McQueen (“12 Years a Slave”), Barry Jenkins (“Moonlight”), Jordan Peele (“Get Out”), and Spike Lee (“BlacKkKlansman”). No Black woman has ever been nominated. Both are terrible stats. But separate from those stats, Ross was simply the best this year. That’s it. His first-person filmmaking was daring, how work with his actors was exceptional, and his auditory command was peerless. He made an indisputable masterpiece.”
Clint would be satisfied if Brady Corbet won for his “staggering ambition” while Matt believes that “A Complete Unknown” is James Mangold’s “masterpiece in terms of visual storytelling.” Again, I’m feeling like the unpredictability of this year will continue and Corbet’s film takes at least three top prizes.
BEST ACTOR
WHO WILL WIN:
Adrien Brody, “The Brutalist” (BT, NM, RD, CW)
Ralph Fiennes, “Conclave” (MZS)
WHO SHOULD WIN:
Colman Domingo, “Sing Sing” (NM, CW, MZS)
Adrien Brody, “The Brutalist” (BT, RD)
WHO SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED:
Sebastian Stan, “A Different Man” (NM, RD)
Nicholas Hoult, Pretty Much Anything (CW)
Keith Kupferer, “Ghostlight” (BT)
Ryland Brickson Cole Tews, “Hundreds of Beavers” (MZS)
One of our few near-consensus predictions is that Adrien Brody will win for “The Brutalist” and that Colman Domingo should win for “Sing Sing.” There’s a fun variety here in who should have been nominated with two editors stumping for a performer who got the nod for the wrong role. Robert says, “In “A Different Man” Stan’s self-loathing, which can be felt from his expressive eyes down to his self-conscious physicality, is the kind of rawness that only occurs when an actor knows how to remove the mask.”
BEST ACTRESS
WHO WILL WIN:
Mikey Madison, “Anora” (BT, NM, CW)
Demi Moore, “The Substance” (RD, MZS)
WHO SHOULD WIN:
Fernanda Torres, “I’m Still Here” (RD, MZS)
Cynthia Erivo, “Wicked” (NM)
Mikey Madison, “Anora” (BT)
Demi Moore, “The Substance” (CW)
WHO SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED:
Marianne Jean-Baptiste, “Hard Truths” (BT, NM, MZS)
Pamela Anderson, “The Last Showgirl” (RD)
Nell Tiger Free, “The First Omen” (CW)
This one is a coin toss. Demi Moore seems to have a lot of support, but I’d remind viewers that the Academy has avoided the comeback narrative several times in the recent past, including snubbing Sylvester Stallone, Mickey Rourke, and even Glenn Close. And that they love young talent in this category. The interesting section here is Who Should Win with four of the five nominees being picked by our editors, and the love for Marianne Jean-Baptiste, one of the biggest snubs in Oscar history IMO.
Robert feels similarly for Fernanda Torres and the kind of “quiet, nuanced performance the Academy often struggles to recognize.” Clint hopes for Moore in part because it could lead to “more horror turns getting the recognition they deserve.” Maybe in the future, it could allow a performance like Nell Tiger Free’s “staggering breakout turn” to be recognized.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
WHO WILL WIN:
Kieran Culkin, “A Real Pain” (BT, NM, RD, CW)
Jeremy Strong, “The Apprentice” (MZS)
WHO SHOULD WIN:
Kieran Culkin, “A Real Pain” (BT, NM, CW, MZS)
Yura Borisov, “Anora” (RD)
WHO SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED:
Clarence Maclin, “Sing Sing” (BT, RD)
Denzel Washington, “Gladiator 2” (NM, MZS)
Chris Hemsworth, “Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga” (CW)
“What was the category invented for, it not to give it to Denzel for being the most exciting actor who ever lived,” asks Matt Zoller Seitz, although Robert and I would have equally loved new talent in the form of Clarence Maclin to accompany his co-star in “Sing Sing.” Robert even calls the miss “the Academy’s gravest mistake.”
Once again, there’s near-consensus here that Kieran Culkin, who has won nearly every precursor award, is going to take this home, but also surprising support for the winner from 80% of the editors. Clint says, “Kieran absolutely deserves the win.” No offense, Matt, but Culkin not winning this would be one of the biggest stunners in Oscar history.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
WHO WILL WIN:
Zoe Saldaña, “Emilia Pérez” (BT, NM, RD, CW)
Isabella Rossellini, “Conclave” (MZS)
WHO SHOULD WIN:
Isabella Rossellini, “Conclave” (RD, CW)
Zoe Saldaña, “Emilia Pérez” (BT, NM)
Monica Barbaro, “A Complete Unknown” (MZS)
WHO SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED:
Danielle Deadwyler, “The Piano Lesson” (NM, RD)
Mary J. Blige, “Rob Peace” (MZS)
Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, “Nickel Boys” (CW)
Natasha Lyonne, “His Three Daughters” (BT)
The consensus here is that Zoe Saldaña will survive the fallout from the collapse of support for Netflix’s “Emilia Pérez” and still win a pretty thin category that Robert calls “the weakest best supporting actress field in years.” Matt would disagree, falling in love with Monica Barbaro’s work. “Not since Angelina Jolie in “Girl, Interrupted” have I thought “this person is as great an actress as she is a natural born movie star,” he says
Imagine how much more creative the Academy could have been here with our picks in the “Should Have Been Nominated” section.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
WHO WILL WIN:
“Conclave” by Peter Straughan (BT, CW, MZS)
“A Complete Unknown” by James Mangold and Jay Cocks (NM)
“Nickel Boys” by RaMell Ross & Joslyn Barnes (RD)
WHO SHOULD WIN:
“Nickel Boys” by RaMell Ross & Joslyn Barnes (BT, RD, CW, MZS)
“Conclave” by Peter Straughan (NM)
WHO SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED:
“The Beast” by Bertrand Bonello (CW)
“The Fire Inside” by Barry Jenkins (RD)
“Inside Out 2” by Meg LeFauve, Dave Holstein, & Kelsey Mann (NM)
“Nosferatu” by Robert Eggers (MZS)
“The Room Next Door” by Pedro Almodovar (BT)
“Anyone who’s read Colson Whitehead’s novel The Nickel Boys, knows the monumental task Ross had adapting the novel,” says Robert. “While reading this visceral and violent work, especially upon learning the twist, you feel as though it’s unfilmable because the camera will surely take away the prose’s immediacy. Ross’ bold adaptive choices make it so that travesty doesn’t happen.”
Clint echoes that sentiment: “Bless “Conclave” for being the kind of straight down the middle drama that Hollywood doesn’t make too often anymore, but I’ve got to give it to RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes’ transformative work adapting Colson Whitehead’s novel to the big screen in all its intimate, impressionistic detail. If you want big swings and challenging ideas, though, I’d have loved for “The Beast”‘s winding, head-scratching screenplay to get some recognition.”
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
WHO WILL WIN:
“Anora” by Sean Baker (BT, RD, CW, MZS)
“The Substance” by Coralie Fargeat (NM)
WHO SHOULD WIN:
“A Real Pain” by Jesse Eisenberg (BT, NM, CW)
“Anora” by Sean Baker (RD)
“The Brutalist” by Brady Corbet & Mona Fastvold (MZS)
WHO SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED:
“Challengers” by Justin Kuritzkes (BT, MZS)
“Babygirl” by Halina Reijn (RD)
“A Different Man” by Aaron Schimberg (CW)
“My Old Ass” by Megan Park (NM)
““Babygirl” should’ve been recognized somewhere instead of being blanked,” says Robert. “While its best path was certainly via Best Actress with Nicole Kidman, I’m surprised it didn’t sneak into what’s also a fairly weak original screenplay category (looking at you “September 5”).”
Clint closes out this special episode: “Jesse Eisenberg’s thoughtful odd-couple script for “A Real Pain” carries surprising depth for a lightweight buddy movie, so I’d be happy to see it take the Oscar. But Aaron Schimberg’s weird, Kaufmanesque work on “A Different Man” deserves more recognition than the Academy is willing to give it; give “weird” stories more love, I say.”
We can all agree with that.
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